Economic Overview
The Bank of Thailand projects the Thai economy to grow by 2.0% in 2025, with downside risks stemming from global trade tensions and a decline in tourist arrivals. Under a scenario where U.S. tariffs remain at current levels, growth is expected to stay around 2.0%, while heightened tariffs could reduce it to 1.3%. The actual outcome will depend on global trade policy developments and how economies adjust. Although growth in early 2025 slowed—partly due to fewer Chinese tourists—exports and private consumption continue to provide support. In 2024, the Thai economy expanded by 2.5%, driven by the recovery of tourism and steady domestic demand.
Projection for Growth and Inflation
| Percentage Per Year | 2024* | 2025 (Lower Tariffs) | 2025 (Higher Tariffs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Headline Inflation | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| Core Inflation | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
More information from the Monetary Policy Forum 1/2025 can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/en/our-roles/monetary-policy/mpc-publication/Monetary-Policy-Forum.html
Source : Bank of Thailand
Monthly Economic Report
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, driven by the continued recovery in tourism, private consumption, and exports, despite ongoing global economic volatility. In 2025, growth is expected to moderate slightly to 2.1%, mainly due to global trade pressures—including the impact of U.S. import tariff policies and economic slowdowns in key trading partner countries. Nonetheless, the Thai economy remains resilient, with domestic drivers such as private consumption and tourism revenues playing a crucial role in supporting expansion.
Thailand’s Economic Projections for 2024 & 2025
| Growth Rate (% YOY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025f |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Real Private Consumption | 7.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Real Private Investment | 3.2 | -1.6 | 0.4 |
Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting : Fiscal Policy Office
Source: Fiscal Policy Office
Last updated: May 26th, 2025
