Economic Overview
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand anticipates that the Thai economy will achieve growth rates of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. This expansion is primarily driven by the resurgence of tourism, robust private consumption bolstered by government stimulus initiatives, and a rebound in exports fueled by increased demand for electronics. However, the recovery remains uneven, with certain sectors, including merchandise exports, manufacturing, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), continuing to face challenges from structural constraints.
Despite these encouraging growth projections, inflation remains subdued. Headline inflation was 0.4% in 2024 and is projected to be 1.1% in 2025, while core inflation was 0.6% in 2024 and is forecast to be 1.0% in 2025.
Projection for Growth and Inflation
| Percentage Per Year | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Headline Inflation | 1.2 | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Core Inflation | 1.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
More information from the Monetary Policy Forum 4/2024 can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/en/our-roles/monetary-policy/mpc-publication/Monetary-Policy-Forum.html
Source : Bank of Thailand
Monthly Economic Report
The Thai economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2024, driven by the recovery of tourism, private consumption, and exports, despite the challenges posed by global economic volatility. In 2025, the economy is forecast to accelerate to 3.0%, supported by strong private consumption, exports, tourism, and both public and private investments. However, there is potential for growth beyond 3.0% if favorable economic conditions prevail both domestically and internationally, and if key policies are effectively implemented.
To achieve this growth, several strategic initiatives will be crucial. These include accelerating the disbursement of the 2025 budget, optimizing the 10,000 Baht digital wallet project to maximize economic circulation, and boosting investments in the "Housing for Thai People" project. Additionally, stimulating tourism, particularly through the 33rd SEA Games, and encouraging private sector investments in data centers and cloud infrastructure will play vital roles in strengthening the economy and its digital capabilities.
Thailand’s Economic Projections for 2024 & 2025
| Growth Rate (% YOY) | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Real Private Consumption | 7.1 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Real Private Investment | 3.2 | -2.7 | 2.7 |
Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting : Fiscal Policy Office
Source: Fiscal Policy Office
Last updated: March 26th, 2025
