Economic Overview
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Thailand anticipates that the Thai economy will achieve growth rates of 2.7% in 2024 and 2.9% in 2025. This expansion is primarily driven by the resurgence of tourism, robust private consumption bolstered by government stimulus initiatives, and a rebound in exports fueled by increased demand for electronics. However, the recovery remains uneven, with certain sectors, including merchandise exports, manufacturing, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), continuing to face challenges from structural constraints.
Despite these encouraging growth projections, inflation remains subdued. Headline inflation is expected to register at 0.5% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, while core inflation is forecast at 0.5% and 0.9% for the respective years.
Projection for Growth and Inflation
| Percentage Per Year | 2023* | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Headline Inflation | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Core Inflation | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
More information from the October 2024 Monetary Policy Report can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/th/our-roles/monetary-policy/mpc-meeting.html
Source : Bank of Thailand
Monthly Economic Report
The Thai economy is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2024, supported by a robust recovery in the tourism and export sectors alongside government stimulus measures implemented towards the year's end. International tourist arrivals are projected to reach 36 million, further bolstering economic activity. Additionally, private consumption is anticipated to expand by 4.6%, reflecting sustained domestic demand.
Looking ahead to 2025, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 3.0%, driven by four key factors: strong private consumption, a continued rebound in exports, thriving tourism, and increased investment from both public and private sectors. This optimistic outlook underscores Thailand's resilience and its steady progress toward sustained economic recovery.
Thailand’s Economic Projections for 2024 & 2025
| Growth Rate (% YOY) | 2023 | 2024f | 2025f |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Real Private Consumption | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| Real Private Investment | 3.2 | -1.9 | 2.3 |
Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting : Fiscal Policy Office
Source: Fiscal Policy Office
Last updated: December 12th, 2024
