Economic Overview
According to the Bank of Thailand, Thailand’s economy grew by 2.4% in 2025, but growth is projected to slow to 1.5% in 2026 before recovering slightly to 2.0% in 2027. The war is expected to weigh on economic activity, while private consumption may weaken due to rising living costs and declining incomes. At the same time, businesses are likely to face higher production and operating costs.
Headline inflation is projected to average 2.9% in 2026, mainly driven by higher global energy prices and cost pass-through, before easing to 1.5% in 2027 as supply-side pressures gradually subside. Core inflation is forecast at 1.6% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027.
Projection for Growth and Inflation
| Percentage Per Year | 2025 | 2026F | 2027F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 2.4 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Headline Inflation | -0.14 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| Core Inflation | 0.84 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
More information from the Monetary Policy Forum 1/2026 can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/th/thai-economy/economic-outlook.html
Source : Bank of Thailand
Monthly Economic Report
The Thai economy expanded by 2.4% in 2025, supported by economic stimulus measures, accelerated public budget disbursement, and stronger-than-expected exports. The economy is projected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, reflecting a gradual recovery despite headwinds from external factors and global geopolitical tensions.
Private consumption is expected to increase by 2.3%, while private investment is projected to grow by 3.2%, driven by the implementation of approved investment promotion projects and continued realization of actual investment.
Thailand Economic Forecast in 2026
| Growth Rate (% YOY) | 2025 | 2026F |
|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Real Private Consumption | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Real Private Investment | 3.5 | 3.2 |
Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting : Fiscal Policy Office
Source: Fiscal Policy Office
Last updated: May 20th, 2026
