Economic Overview
The Bank of Thailand projects the Thai economy to grow by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. This outlook comes with risks to merchandise exports from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions. Although the economy expanded more than anticipated in the first half of 2025, a slowdown is projected for the second half of the year due to these risks and moderating private consumption. Headline inflation is projected to remain low at 0.5% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, primarily due to supply-side factors, while core inflation is projected to expand by 1.0% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026.
Projection for Growth and Inflation
| Percentage Per Year | 2024* | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Headline Inflation | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Core Inflation | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
More information from the Monetary Policy Forum 3/2025 can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/en/our-roles/monetary-policy/mpc-publication/Monetary-Policy-Forum.html
Source : Bank of Thailand
Monthly Economic Report
Thailand’s economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025, primarily due to the impact of U.S. retaliatory tariffs and their effects on international trade. However, this growth is supported by better-than-expected industrial production and exports, alongside continued growth in domestic consumption. Private consumption is a key driver, projected to expand by 3.1% annually, reflecting strong domestic purchasing power. Additionally, private investment is expected to grow by 3.0% per year, with a continued recovery in investment.
Thailand Economic Forecast in 2025
| Growth Rate (% YOY) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025f |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Real Private Consumption | 7.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Real Private Investment | 3.2 | -1.6 | 3.0 |
Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting : Fiscal Policy Office
Source: Fiscal Policy Office
Last updated: July 30th, 2025
