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Economic Overview

Economic Overview

In its June 2017 Monetary Policy Report, Thailand’s economy in 2017 is projected to continue expanding mainly driven by exports. Meanwhile, private consumption recovers at a gradual pace. Public spending remains a key growth driver despite some delays in public investment.  Private consumption expanded at a gradual pace, supported by improvements in farm income, together with employment in services  and  export-related  manufacturing  sectors  that  was  expected  to  gradually  increase. Private investment was projected to slowly recover. In the near term, investment expenditure to expand production capacity was observed in export-oriented manufacturing sectors especially electronics. Headline inflation remained low due to supply-side factors but was expected to gradually rise in tandem with demand-pull inflationary pressures that were expected to slowly increase given the improved growth outlook.


                        Projection for Growth and Inflation

Percentage Per Year

2016*

2017

2018

GDP Growth

3.2

3.5

3.7

 

 

(3.4)

(3.6)

Headline Inflation

0.2

0.8

1.6

 

 

(1.2)

(1.9)

Core Inflation

0.7

0.6

0.9

 

 

(0.7

(1.0)

Note: * Actual outturn

        ( ) Monetary Policy Report of June 2017


More information from the June 2017 Monetary Policy Report can be found at https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/MonetPolicyComittee/MPR/Pages/default.aspx


Last Updated: 30 August 2017

Source: Bank of Thailand

 

Monthly Economic Report

The Finance Ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) produces a series of reports on the Thai economy. In its July 2017 Fiscal Policy Report, the FPO reported that “The  Thai  economy  in  June  and  the  second  quarter  of 2017 (Q2/2017)  showed continually  expanding  signs,  mainly  driven  by  export  sector.  In addition, private consumption showed improving signs as reflected by farmers’ real income which continued to expand. Meanwhile, the supply-side economy was supported by Agricultural Production Index and tourism sector which continued to grow well.”


Monthly Economic Report (Q2, 2017)

Growth Rate (% YOY)

2015

2016

2017

2017

(Share of GDP)

Q1

Q2

YTD

Real GDP (% YOY)

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.5

Private Consumption (51.3%)

2.2

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

Private Investment (18.0%)

-2.2

0.4

-1.1

3.2

1.0


Additional detail from the latest month’s Fiscal Policy Report can be found by visiting: http://www.fpo.go.th/FPO/index2.php?mod=Category&file=categoryview&categoryID=CAT0000034


Last Updated: 30 August 2017

Source: Fiscal Policy Office

  

Thailand’s Economic Outlook 2017

In July 2017, the Fiscal Policy Office reported that the Thai economy grows at an annualized rate of 3.2 percent in 2016, higher than 0.3 percent in previous year. Looking to 2017, the FPO indicated that it expects the Thai economy to grow at an annualized rate of 3.6 percent, driven by an anticipated increasing in public investment; especially in the economic stimulus package.


Additional information about the Thai Economic Outlook for 2017 is available through the Fiscal Policy Office website at http://www.fpo.go.th/FPO/index2.php


                                                                    Economic Forecast (as of July 2017)

2014

2015

2016

2017 forecast

2017 (band)

Real GDP

0.9

2.9

3.2

3.6

3.3-3.9

Trade Balance (US$ Bil.)

17.2

26.8

36.5

29.4

29.1-29.7

– Export of Goods

-0.4

-5.6

0.1

4.7

4.4-5.0

– Import of Goods

-7.9

-10.6

-5.1

9.7

9.4-10.0

Current Account (US$ Bil.)

15.2

32.1

39.0

42.3

42.0-42.6

Current Account (% GDP)

3.7

8.0

11.7

9.5

9.2-9.8

Headline Inflation

1.9

-0.9

0.2

0.8

0.5-1.1

Core Inflation

1.6

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.-0.9

                                  
Last Updated: 30 August 2017

Source: http://www.fpo.go.th/FPO/index2.php